Pot Odds in Texas Hold’em: When to Call and When to Fold

Was that Texas Hold’em poker hand you just lost actually a bad beat, or did you just make a bad decision based on the odds?

Is that mediocre hand you can’t resist a favorite against what your opponents typically play? Was your winning hand actually a good play for the pot odds you got, or did you just get lucky?

Poker Odds You Should Memorize

True to my word, I only think you need to know basic math to make “correct” plays in poker. However, there are a few odds that come up often at the poker table that I recommend you memorize.

Knowing these odds helps you most on the flop with a draw or with a made hand which you want to protect against an opponent with a draw.

Note that these odds are rounded to the nearest whole number to make it easier for you to memorize. For more specific odds, check the full odds chart a couple of sections below.

Even though the 15 out hand situation sounds rare, you’ll actually run into it fairly often when playing powerful suited hands like A♥K♥ or A♣Q♣.

I want you to keep in mind how strong of a drawing hand this is when you get it. You end up with 9 outs for the flush draw and 6 more for the straight. It’s only 6 instead of 8 because 2 of those outs were used for the flush. In poker odds, you don’t count outs twice if you can make multiple hands.

How do you figure out pot odds in poker?

Pot odds in poker simply means the “price” that it costs you to continue with your hand.

For example, if you’re in a hand where the pot is $100 and your opponent bets $50, you’re getting 3 to 1 pot odds to call. The pot is $150 (the $100 that’s already there plus the $50 bet) and it costs $50 to continue. Divide the total pot amount $150 by $50 to get 3.

You say that number “to 1” and those are your pot odds. Understanding pot odds is an essential poker concept because you should always compare the odds of making a drawing hand against the pot odds you’re actually receiving.

What are poker outs?

Poker “outs” are cards to come that will improve your hand.

For example, if you have a Flush Draw on the flop, you have 9 outs to complete. There are 13 cards in each suit minus the 4 you already know about (your 2 hole cards plus 2 on the flop of the same suit).

Another example is 8 outs for an Open-Ended Straight Draw (4 of each card above and below your draw that will complete the Straight). In this case, there would be 1 out for a Set to turn into Four of a Kind because there’s just one more of that card value left in the deck.

Poker odds chart

The following chart will show you the odds to improve your hand based on how many outs you have. I’ve also included the percentages.

First, figure out how many outs you have and then if you’re on the flop, turn, or want to know the odds from the flop all the way to the river. The most common situations are highlighted below — these are the ones worth memorizing.

Note that the odds are slightly better going from the turn to the river than the flop to the turn because there’s one fewer unknown card left in the deck.

Use the 2 and 4 “Hack” when you forget the odds

What happens if you’re in the middle of a hand and you forget the odds to improve your hand? With the rule of 2 and 4, you’re still good as long as you can figure out your outs.

How does it work? To see the percentage of your hand improving by the next card, you simply multiply your outs by 2. If you’re on the flop and want to know how you’ll fare by the river, multiply your outs by 4.

Note that you won’t get the exactly correct poker odds using this shortcut, but it’s close enough to make a good decision.

Let’s look at a couple examples to see how this works.

If you’re on the flop and have a flush draw, you have 9 outs. How do you know that? Take the 13 poker cards of that suit and subtract the 2 in your hand and the 2 on the flop.

That leaves 9. Multiplying that by 2 gives you 18, or around an 18% chance to complete your flush on the turn. Multiplying it by 4 gets you a 36% to complete it by the river.

The actual percentage odds for a flush draw hitting on the turn and then by the river are 19.1% and 35% respectively, getting you pretty close with the 2 and 4 hack.

This system works well in any situation with any number of outs.

If you have an inside (or gutshot) straight draw, you have 4 outs because you need just one specific card value and there are 4 of each card value in the deck. Double that to get an 8% chance to hit the straight on the turn and multiply it by 4 to get a 16% chance to hit it by the river.

The actual chances of hitting an inside straight on the turn and then by the river are 8.5% and 16.5% respectively. Pretty darn close.

Just remember this at the table: double your outs for your chance of hitting on the turn and multiply by 4 to see how often you’ll hit by the river.

Why do you need to know poker odds?

Besides reviewing your poker play later to see if you made the correct play based on the actual odds, you should memorize the most important odds for use while you play.

If you have a drawing hand, such as a flush or straight draw, you’ll want to make sure you’re getting the correct price on your bet or call compared to the odds of making your hand.

You should be armed with the ability to calculate the most common scenarios in your head during a hand.

I’m a firm believer that you can still be a successful poker player without knowing the odds for every single type of situation at the table, but you should memorize the most common situations on the flop:

• Open-ended straight draws
• Flush draws
• Hitting on your overcards to the flop
• Hitting a set on the flop with your pocket pair

Figuring out correct Hold’em poker odds without much math

Contrary to what some poker strategists  preach, you don’t need to memorize a long list of odds and perform complex mathematics to be a winning Texas Hold’em player.

However, there are some simple Texas Hold’em odds and probabilities that you should know well when you’re drawing to a hand or want to prevent your opponents from doing so.

Here’s the bottom line:

If you figure that your draw will be the best hand if you hit it, just compare the odds of you hitting that hand to the odds the pot is giving you to decide if you’re making a mathematically sound play.

You will run into this situation often at the table, either offline or playing at online poker sites, so get into the habit of comparing the actual odds of making your hand against the pot odds you’re receiving.

The odds below are separated into pre-flop and post-flop sections and, while some are essential, some were thrown in for fun.

Preflop Texas Hold’em Odds

These odds won’t really affect your game strategy, but I want it to give you perspective on how rare certain premium cards are.

At the same time, realize that many poker players overvalue random cards of the same suits, which are dealt relatively frequently. However, the odds that these poker hands will improve are much less.

Probability of being dealt:

• Any pocket pair: 16 to 1 (5.9%)
• Two suited cards: 3.25 to 1 (23.5%)
• A-K (Big slick – suited or offsuit): 81.9 to 1 (0.9%)
• Any single ace: 5.7 to 1 (15%)
• Pocket Aces: 220 to 1 (0.5%)
• Pocket Aces or Kings: 110 to 1 (1%)

Odds of connecting with the Flop in Hold’em

This is where true strategy and comparing pot odds to the actual odds of hitting a better hand come into play. I’ve listed the most essential common situations of what you’re looking to hit on the flop.

It’s a wise idea to try to commit the approximate values to memory so you can quickly make pre-flop decisions at the table.

• Hitting another kind of your pocket pair (making a set): 7.5 to 1 (11.8%)
• You will pair at least one of your unpaired hole cards: 2.1 to 1 (32.4%)
• Hitting two or more of your suit when you hold suited cards: 7.5 to 1 (11.8%)
• Hitting a flush on the flop with suited hole cards: 118 to 1 (0.8%)
• You will hit two pair on the flop with unpaired hole cards: 49 to 1 (2%)

Odds On the Flop in Texas Hold’em

The flop is the turning point of a Hold’em hand. This is where you’re going to make your biggest and most expensive decisions. Knowing the odds of improving your hand after the flop is one of the most important things to remember in Hold’em.

These Hold’em odds, combined with the reading of your opponent(s), will entirely shape whether you continue with a drawing hand or how you make it an incorrect play for your opponent(s) to draw out on your made hand.

This is especially where “outs” come into your line of thinking and how all of these Texas Hold-em poker odds are generated. For example, if you have 4 cards to a flush you have 9 outs to make your hand on the turn. There are 13 cards per suit and you have 4 of them.

There are 9 unknown cards left that could complete your flush so you have 9 outs out of 47 total unknown cards (52 cards in the deck – your 2 cards and – 3 more on the flop). This is how Texas Hold’em odds are calculated. Rounded to the nearest tenth of a percent, 9/47 = 19.1, or a 19.1% chance to hit your flush on the turn.

Straight and Flush Draw Odds

Drawing to open-ended straights and flushes, or fear of your opponents doing so, is one of the most common scenarios in Hold’em. Again, compare the following odds to the pot odds you’re receiving in order to calculate if it is correct to continue your draw.

On the flop, when you have:

• Four cards to a flush, you will complete it on the turn: 4.2 to 1 (19.1%)
• An open-ended straight, you will complete it on the turn: 4.9 to 1 (~17%)
• A set, you will complete a Full House or Four of a Kind on the turn: 5.7 to 1 (14.9%)
• Two pair, you will complete a Full House on the turn: 10.8 to 1 (8.5%)

Odds of hitting a hand by the river from the flop

The following set of odds is the likelihood to complete these hands by the river on the flop, so with 2 cards to come on the board.

• Four cards to a flush, you will complete it by the river: 1.9 to 1 (35%)
• An open-ended straight, you will complete it by the river: 2.2 to 1 (32%)
• An inside (gutshot) straight draw, you will complete it by the river: 5.1 to 1 (17%)
• Two pairs, you will complete at least a Full House by the river: 5 to 1 (17.7%)
• Three of a kind, you will complete at least a Full House by the river: 2 to 1 (33.4%)
• One pair, you will complete at least three of a kind by the river: 10.9 to 1 (8.4%)
• An open-ended straight flush draw, you will complete at least a straight by the river: 0.9 to 1 (54.1%)
• An open-ended straight flush draw, you will complete it by the river: 10.9 to 1 (8.4%)

All-in One-on-One in Texas Hold’em

This comes up most often in tournaments when only two players are involved and one of them is all-in. When all of your money goes in preflop against one opponent no further decisions need to be made and the cards will be dealt to the river to determine a winner.

Preflop matchups when played to showdown:

• Larger pocket pair vs. smaller pocket pair (AA vs. KK): Larger pair is at least an 80% favorite
• Pocket Aces vs. unpaired cards (AA vs. KQ): Pocket Aces are at least an 80% favorite
• Pocket Pair vs. overcards (QQ vs. AK): Pocket pair is at least a 52% favorite (commonly referred to as a coin flip)
• Pocket Pair vs. one overcard (JJ vs. A10): Pocket pair is at least a 66% favorite
• Overcards vs. Undercards (AK vs. Q10): Overcards are at least a 57% favorite
• One overcard (A3 vs. J10): suited connector is roughly a coin flip or slight favorite
• Better kicker (AK vs. AJ): Better kicker is at least a 70% favorite

Just-for-Fun Texas Hold’em odds

These statistics probably won’t affect your game in the slightest, but it’s interesting to know what some of the extreme odds are in Hold’em.

• If you’re holding a pair, the flop will bring you four of a kind about 1 in 119 tries, or 0.84% of the time.
• The odds are 70.5 to 1 (1.4%) that no one at the table has an Ace or a King at a 10-handed table.
• The odds are 87,897 to 1 (0.01%) that you will not be dealt an Ace or a pair for 50 hands.
• You will be dealt pocket Aces four consecutive times 1 in 2,385,443,281 times. Expressed as a percentage, it will happen 0.00000004% of the time.

More on Hold’em odds

What are “pot odds”?

Pot odds are simply the odds that the pot is giving you on your play. For example, if the pot is $10 and it costs you $2 to call, you are getting 5:1 (spoken “5 to 1”) pot odds. In this instance, it costs you $2 for the chance to win $10.

If you’re playing in a live game or on a site that doesn’t show the active pot amount you’ll need to include all money that has been bet instead of just the money sitting in the pot from previous betting rounds.

How do I calculate pot odds?

Using simple addition and division you can at least approximate your pot odds at any given moment. While it may seem intimidating, all you have to do is divide the pot by the amount it costs you to call.

If you’re in a big hand and the pot is $90 on the flop and your lone opponent bets $10 into you, you divide 100 (the existing $90 plus your opponent’s $10) by 10 (the 10 it costs you to call) to come up with 10. You’re getting 10 to 1 pot odds to make the call.

At least give yourself an approximation

Even if the numbers aren’t as simple, try estimating to get an approximate idea of your odds. If the pot is $85 and you have to call a $20 bet, the exact odds are 4.25 to 1.

Instead of taking the time to figure that out, you know that it is much closer to 4 (4×20=80) than 5 (5×20=100) so you’ll give yourself pretty close pot odds by simply figuring that call as 4:1. Again, just divide the total pot by the amount it costs you to call.

How are pot odds useful?

Without any context pot odds sounds like an interesting mathematical quirk of an inherently mathematical game. However, when you begin to compare the pot odds you’re getting with the actual odds of making your hand, they actually become very useful.

Examples of pot odds in action

Completing a four-flush

For example, on the flop you know that you are approximately a 2:1 underdog of making your open-ended straight or completing your four-flush by the river. If you didn’t know that you might want to review my Texas Hold’em Odds page first.

Compare those odds of making your hand to your pot odds to see if the call is worthwhile.

If you have an open-ended straight draw and are facing a $5 bet into a $20 pot, you’re getting 4:1 pot odds. This means that you need to make your hand 1 out of 5 times to make a profit. Since you’ll make your straight 1 out of 3 times by the river, this is an easy call.

Pot odds with a set vs. made flush

Another example would be hitting a set on the flop with 3 suited cards on the board. For this scenario let’s assume that your opponent already has a completed flush. If your opponent bets out $30 and makes the pot $110, you should probably call.

In this situation, you’re getting almost 4:1 pot odds on your money and the odds of making a full house by the river are about 2:1. You’re essentially the one drawing at this point, but he’s given you the right odds to do so.

However, if you knew your opponent had a small flush and he bet out $140 to make the pot $220, you may want to dump the hand. You need to call $140 for the chance to win $220, or only about 1.5:1 pot odds when the actual odds of making a full house by the river are about 2:1.

Hoping for a set on the flop with a pocket pair

Finally, an extremely common draw in no-limit Hold’em is playing any pocket pair preflop with the hope of making a set on the flop. The actual odds of making your set on the flop are about 7.5:1 – not very good at all.

However, when lots of players limp in and the pot slowly grows the pot odds on your call begin to make it more worthwhile.

While you’ll rarely be receiving 7.5:1 or better pot odds the return on your play becomes much better when the pot grows in relation to the small amount required to call.

Of course, implied odds can also enter the equation, which is a powerful but unreliable concept.

More uses for pot odds

While the above examples are drawing situations you can also use pot odds effectively in all-in tournament situations. When you hear about players getting “priced in” or “having to call” they’re talking about the pot odds.

Tournament example to get the “right price” on a call

Let’s say that it’s the final table of a major televised tournament with the blinds at 25,000/50,000. The short stack moves all-in from the button for a measly 200,000. The small blind folds and the big blind looks down to find K-9 offsuit.

He has to call 100,000 more for a chance to win a current pot of 350,000 (the blinds plus the 200,000 bet). The pot odds are 3.5:1 and this makes it an almost automatic call as he’s getting more than the right odds against an underpair or even a single overcard. Thus, he’s getting the “right price” on his call.

You can also compare the pot odds to the likely odds that your opponent has you beat. If you’re getting almost even-money pot odds on an all-in call but think that there is only a 1 in 4 chance that your opponent has you beat right now, this can help you decide whether or not to make the call.

Another “have to call” situation in tournaments comes when a player is getting better than 2:1 odds by calling an all-in bet holding a straight or flush draw on the flop.

Should you ever overlook the pot odds?

Of course, pot odds are certainly not everything in poker. There may be times in tournaments where you’re obviously getting the right pot odds on a call but simply don’t want to risk a lot of chips on a potential gamble.

That is often the philosophy of successful tight tournament players like Phil Hellmuth who usually won’t risk a substantial amount of chips on any single hand unless they’re a clear favorite. You may be in a cash game in which you cannot afford to play a lot of draws regardless of the pot odds.

Conclusions on why pot odds are so essential

The conclusion should that I’d like you to take away from the concept of pot odds is that it’s an effective tool to calculate the odds you’re getting on any given call. In fact it’s probably the most essential concept in poker.

Just remember that it’s simple to calculate: just divide the total pot by the amount it costs you to call. Then compare that to the odds of your hand (or your opponent’s likely hand) improving to make the best fold, call, or raise.

If you find that you routinely make calls against the odds that the pot is offering you try to reevaluate your play and plug up this leak in your game. If you always make calls with the proper pot odds you will statistically come out ahead in the long-run.

Key Takeaways