Hold’em Odds & Probability: The Eight Numbers That Run Every Hand
The line between fish and shark isn't quick mental arithmetic — it's recognizing the same eight situations every hand and knowing what they're worth. This page is the short list: starting-hand odds, draw probabilities, and the outs you'll see again and again.
Outs × 4 on the flop. Outs × 2 on the turn.
Count the cards that improve you. Multiply by four if both turn and river are coming; multiply by two if there's just one card left. The result is your equity, in percent. Off by a hair past 8 outs — but the speed is the point.
At low out counts, the rule of 2 and 4 is nearly perfect. Use it without thinking.
Every draw you’ll ever flop, in one table.
Click any row. If you can recall these seven percentages cold, you're never in the dark about a draw again — and you'll know whether the price you're being offered is a gift or a trap.
Six matchups that shape every preflop decision.
Pocket aces are an 80% favorite against any other single hand. Pocket pairs vs two overcards is a coin flip. Most of preflop is just recognizing which of these six you're in.
Even the worst-case for kings — running into aces — is still 18%. AA is a huge but not insurmountable favorite.
Outs aren’t just numbers — they’re cards.
Most miscounts happen at combo draws — flush plus straight draw, set plus flush. The trick is never to double-count: if a card helps two ways, it still only counts once.
Counting 15 outs
Are you priced in?
Plug in the pot, the bet, and your outs. The bar on top is the price the pot is offering. The bar below is the equity you have. If equity beats price, call. If not, fold. That's the entire framework.
Three habits. Every decision.
Multiply outs by 2 and 4
Turn → river: outs × 2. Flop → river: outs × 4. Off by a few points past 8 outs — close enough at the table, every time.
Memorize four draws
Flush 35%. Open-ended 31%. Gutshot 17%. Set-to-boat 33%. Recall these instantly and the rest follows.
Compare equity to pot odds
If your equity exceeds the percentage of the pot you’re being asked to pay, call. If not, fold. The whole game lives inside that one comparison.